By: Chaitali Patel, Pharm.D. Candidate: Seun Lagbenro, Pharm.D. Candidate; W. Renee’ Acosta, R.Ph., M.S.; and Kenneth A. Lawson, Ph.D., FAPhA
The Challenge of Identifying Predictors of Success
Pharmacy school admissions committees face the ongoing challenge of selecting candidates most likely to succeed academically and professionally. While research has consistently identified factors like pre-pharmacy GPA, overall GPA, and PCAT scores as strong predictors of academic performance,1,2,3 the question remains: Do these factors tell the whole story?
The goal of admissions is not just to select students who will perform well academically but to select students who will evolve into pharmacists who will contribute meaningfully to the profession. The reliance on GPA as a predictor raises concerns about what might be missing in the assessment of candidates. While it may select academically successful students, does it adequately identify students who will be impactful pharmacists?
What We Did & What We Found
To better understand student academic success, we analyzed the first professional year (P1) Fall GPA for students in the classes of 2025, 2026, and 2027 at The University of Texas at Austin College of Pharmacy due to this being the semester in which most students struggle, with some eventually unable to progress on schedule. We examined multiple pre-admission factors, including previously identified strong predictors of academic performance (overall pre-pharmacy GPA, math and science GPA), age, residency (in-state vs out-of-state), race, citizenship status along with work experience, extracurricular involvement, organizational involvement, service/volunteering, teaching/tutoring/mentoring, research experience, special life circumstances, essay score, and average letter of recommendation (LOR) score as scored by Admissions Committee members.
Our findings aligned with previous research: math, science, and overall GPAs were the strongest predictors of P1 Fall GPA, with 1-unit increases corresponding to 0.28, 0.43, and 0.35-point increases, respectively. Other factors, such as extracurricular involvement and work experience, did not significantly correlate with early academic success.
Why GPA Alone Isn’t Enough
While GPA remains a consistently measurable and significant predictor, it does not capture the full complexity of a student’s ability to thrive in pharmacy school and beyond. GPA is a straightforward quantitative metric, but factors such as resilience, professionalism, adaptability, leadership, and communication skills, which are critical to a pharmacist’s success, are harder to quantify.
If admissions committees were to rely solely on GPA, they might overlook candidates who, despite a lower GPA, have demonstrated exceptional critical thinking, problem-solving abilities, or commitment to patient care. Holistic factors such as extracurricular involvement and prior work experience help quantify a candidate’s strengths and potential beyond GPA, providing a more comprehensive assessment of their abilities.
The Case for a Balanced Approach
Our findings reaffirm that GPA is a key predictor of academic performance. However, other factors, such as leadership experience and commitment to service, should also be considered to identify successful students beyond GPA alone. Our findings support the correlation between pre-pharmacy GPA and P1 fall success. However, GPA is only one component of a successful student and does not take into account professional growth and development. Rather than minimizing or emphasizing the significance of GPA, institutions should view it as one component of a comprehensive evaluation. Moving forward, schools should explore more effective ways to assess and integrate qualitative factors into the admissions process, ensuring the selection of students who not only excel academically but also develop into well-rounded, impactful pharmacists committed to advancing the profession.
By integrating strong academic indicators with a broader assessment of student potential, pharmacy schools can ensure the selection of candidates who will not only be academically successful in the classroom but also well-prepared for success in their careers as pharmacists. Additional research needs to be done to determine which holistic admission factors correlate with long-term professional success.
References:
- Allen DD, Bond CA. Prepharmacy predictors of success in pharmacy school: grade point averages, pharmacy college admissions test, communication abilities, and critical thinking skills. Pharmacotherapy. 2001;21(7):842-849. doi:10.1592/phco.21.9.842.34566
- Allen RE, Diaz C Jr, Gant K, Taylor A, Onor I. Preadmission predictors of on-time graduation in a Doctor of Pharmacy program. Am J Pharm Educ. 2016;80(3):43. doi:10.5688/ajpe80343
- McCall KL, Allen DD, Fike DS. Predictors of academic success in a doctor of pharmacy program. Am J Pharm Educ. 2006;70(5):106. doi:10.5688/aj7005106
Author Bio(s):
Chaitali Patel is a fourth-year Pharm.D. Candidate at the University of Texas at Austin. Her educational interests include the practice of critical care and pediatric pharmacy. In her free time, Chaitali enjoys exploring new coffee shops with friends, reading thrillers or mysteries, and attending concerts.
Seun Lagbenro is a second-year Pharm.D. candidate at the University of Texas at Austin. His educational interests include ambulatory care, internal medicine, and health-system pharmacy administration and leadership. In his free time, Seun enjoys traveling and exploring new food spots, always eager to try unique and exciting cuisines.
W. Renee’ Acosta is a Clinical Professor and Associate Dean for Academic Affairs at The University of Texas at Austin. Her research interests include over-the-counter products, student assessment and success, and innovative teaching methods.
Dr. Ken Lawson earned his Pharm.D. from The University of Texas at Austin College of Pharmacy, followed by an M.S. and Ph.D. in Pharmacy Administration. His teaching focuses on health care systems, pharmacy management, research methods, and data analysis. His research explores prescription medication utilization, expenditures, and influencing factors.
Pulses is a scholarly blog supported by a team of pharmacy education scholars.
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